我们
Once in a while the phenomena we exploit are particularly present. We like a reasonable amount of volatility. In our business we want some action. “Tumult is usually good for us. We don’t have credit lines of any significance. We don’t do a lot of leveraged-type financing.
We don’t start with models. We start with data. We don’t have any preconceived notions. We look for things that can be replicated thousands of times. A trouble with convergence trading is that you don’t have a time scale. You say that eventually things will come together.Well， when is eventually？
Trend-following is not such a good model. It’s simply eroded. Things change and being able to adjust is what made Mr. Simons so successful. “Statistic predictor signals erode over the next several years； it can be five years or 10 years. You have to keep coming up with new things because the market is against us. If you don’t keep getting better， you’re going to do worse.
We search through historical data looking for anomalous patterns that we would not expect to occur at random. Our scheme is to analyze data and markets to test for statistical significance and consistency over time. Once we find one， we test it for statistical significance and consistency over time. After we determine its validity， weask， ‘Does this correspond to some aspect of behavior that seems reasonable？’
We have three criteria. If it’s publicly traded， liquid and amenable to modeling， we trade it.
Efficient market theory is correct in that there are no gross inefficiencies， but we look at anomalies that may be small in size and brief in time.
