The causal model is the bridge between data and decision-making.

At a restaurant do you order what you know is great， or do you try something new？ Do you make what you know will sell or try something new？ Do you keep dating new folks or try to commit to someone you already met？ The optimal balance for exploring new things vs exploiting them once found is: 1/3. Spend 1/3 of your time on exploring and 2/3 time on deepening. It is harder to devote time to exploring as you age because it seems unproductive， but aim for 1/3.

The only limit to our realization of tomorrow will be our doubts of today.

最好的农民不仅仅是饲养动物，他们是在培育生态系统。

天下都变成了秋天的气象，一个房间难以维持春天的温暖。

种一棵树最好的时间是20年前，其次是现在。

【译文】 孔子说：“君子坦荡而不骄狂，小人骄狂而不坦荡。”